Poland Market Watch 2026: Warsaw, Krakow and the Tri-City
Poland's housing boom has paused. National Bank of Poland (NBP) figures for the fourth quarter of 2025, reported by Notes from Poland, show prices fell year on year on both the new-build and resale markets - the first simultaneous annual decline since 2013.
It follows two years in which Poland posted the fastest house-price growth in Europe. Here is what the data says about Warsaw, Krakow and the Gdansk-Gdynia-Sopot Tri-City, and what it means if you are buying in 2026.
From Europe's fastest rises to a gentle dip
In 2024 Poland recorded a 19.3% rise in new-home prices - the highest of the 28 countries in Deloitte's European housing survey, ahead of Albania (16.5%) and Israel (12.7%). By late 2025 the picture had turned: NBP data for Q4 2025 shows new-build prices down 0.8% year on year across its city panel, with resale prices down 0.4%.
Analysts at Bank Pekao, quoted by Notes from Poland, note that in real terms prices fell by 3-3.5% year on year in the second half of 2025, while housing affordability improved for six consecutive quarters. For contrast, Eurostat data shows house prices across the EU were still rising, up 5.1% year on year in Q1 2026.
- 2024: new-home prices +19.3%, Europe's highest (Deloitte)
- Q4 2025: new-build prices -0.8% and resale -0.4% year on year (NBP)
- First simultaneous annual fall on both markets since 2013
- EU average in Q1 2026: +5.1% year on year (Eurostat)
Warsaw: now pricier than Rome
Deloitte's survey put the average bid price for a new dwelling in Warsaw at 3,849 euros per square metre in 2024 - overtaking Rome (3,839 euros) and close to Bratislava (3,909 euros) and Budapest (3,863 euros), after a 21.7% jump that year.
NBP data for Q4 2025 shows the average new-build price in Warsaw at 16,583 zloty per square metre (about 3,375 euros), with resale flats at 16,750 zloty. Affordability remains stretched: buying a 70-square-metre flat in Warsaw costs about 9.7 years of average gross salary, per Deloitte - though that is still better than Prague at 15.0 years.
Krakow: the sharpest riser, now cooling
Krakow posted the single largest increase of the 75 European cities Deloitte examined - new-home prices up 28.1% in 2024. On affordability it sits close to the capital, at around 9.3 years of average salary for a 70-square-metre flat.
Krakow is part of the seven-city panel in NBP's quarterly data, where the average new-build price stood at 14,251 zloty per square metre in Q4 2025 and resale at 13,479 zloty - both essentially flat to slightly down on a year earlier, a marked change from the double-digit rises of 2023-24.
The Tri-City coast: Gdansk, Gdynia and Sopot
The Baltic Tri-City is where the NBP data shows the market pulling in two directions at once. In Q4 2025 Gdynia recorded the strongest new-build price growth of the big cities, up 11.9% year on year, while its resale market fell fastest, down 5.9%.
Gdansk, the largest of the three cities and one of the major markets NBP tracks each quarter, sits between Warsaw and the cheaper regional cities on price - for reference, the seven-city averages were 14,251 zloty per square metre for new builds and 13,479 zloty for resales, against 9,708 and 8,038 zloty in Lodz, the cheapest large market.
What this means for buyers in 2026
A flat market after years of steep rises means more choice and more negotiating room, and affordability has been improving as wages catch up. Bear in mind that homes are priced in zloty, so the exchange rate matters for foreign buyers, and Polish mortgage rates have been high - averaging 7.67% in 2024, the second-highest in Deloitte's survey.
Prices and conditions change quarter to quarter, so check NBP's latest quarterly housing report before you commit. If you want to compare districts and prices on the ground, Habio has Poland listings and area guides for Warsaw, Krakow and the coast.
Frequently asked questions
Are house prices in Poland falling in 2026?
NBP data for Q4 2025 showed new-build prices down 0.8% and resale prices down 0.4% year on year - the first simultaneous annual fall since 2013. In real terms, Bank Pekao analysts put the drop at 3-3.5% in the second half of 2025.
How much does a flat in Warsaw cost per square metre?
In Q4 2025, NBP data put average Warsaw prices at 16,583 zloty per square metre for new builds (about 3,375 euros) and 16,750 zloty for resale flats.
Is Warsaw more expensive than other European capitals?
Warsaw overtook Rome in 2024 - 3,849 versus 3,839 euros per square metre for new homes, per Deloitte - and is close to Bratislava and Budapest, but far below Paris (10,760 euros) or Luxembourg City (11,074 euros).
Which Polish city saw the fastest price growth recently?
Krakow: new-home prices rose 28.1% in 2024, the largest increase among the 75 European cities in Deloitte's survey. Warsaw rose 21.7% and Lodz 22.7% the same year, before the market cooled in 2025.
Why did Polish house prices rise so fast in 2023-24?
Strong economic growth, limited supply and state mortgage subsidies - notably a scheme that capped first-time buyers' rates at 2%, which ended in January 2024 - pushed Poland to the top of European price-growth rankings before the market flattened.
Sources
This article is general information, not legal, tax or financial advice. Markets and rules change — verify the current position with official sources before acting. Published 2 August 2026.